2026 Thematic outlook

Themes are driving markets in unprecedented ways- with U.S. thematic fund AUM growing 11x over the past decade.² Themes like crypto remain top of mind for investors with the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) remaining the fastest growing ETP in history.³

The iShares Trusts are not investment companies registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, and therefore are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds or ETFs registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940. Investments in these products are speculative and involve a high degree of risk.

Themes are converging in new and impactful ways across AI, digital processes and digital security or “compute & conflict”. The same can be said for infrastructure with the physical buildout and the energy behind it, as we call “pipes & power”. As we see themes continue to grow in prominence, now may be the time to revisit the role they may play in portfolios and the nuances within themes matter.

Themes aren’t just continuing to dominate headlines — In our view they’re reshaping our daily lives. With so many themes to choose from, investors may consider using an active thematic rotation strategy. By dynamically shifting exposure toward the most compelling themes, investors can seek to capture evolving trends. For example, as evidenced in the chart below, we look at consumer behaviors and where consumers are shopping and not shopping when looking to cut-back or “tightening their belts” amidst challenging economic conditions. Blending select discretionary and staple companies, investors can potentially capture the theme of shifting consumer behavior. Investors interested in taking an active approach to thematic investing may consider the iShares U.S. Thematic Rotation Active ETF (THRO).

The continued adoption and advancement of AI has  wide-ranging implications and “compute” as we know it may be changing. It is our belief that more complex tasks (not just more users) are driving the next leg of “compute” demand.

Tokens are like the “fuel” AI uses to read information and produce an answer. Simple chats use a little fuel, but harder jobs, like coding help, generating videos or AI that can complete multiple steps on its own (i.e. agentic AI) use many times more. And when AI has to interpret messy real-world inputs (think sensor data on a self-driving car) and make many decisions in a sequence, token use can jump yet again. So even if the number of AI users stayed the same, total AI computing demand for computer power can still grow as people use AI for more complex tasks.

Rising token volumes is one sign that AI workloads are increasing, which can translate into ongoing demand for computing power. For example, the chart below shows roughly 17x growth in weekly token usage since 2024 on OpenRouter, a platform that routes AI requests across many different models.

As AI evolves, it’s essential to look beyond headline-grabbing AI user counts and towards this depth of usage — as we feel fears of entering “bubble” territory may be overstated.

Investors looking to access the full AI value chain may consider the iShares Future AI & Tech ETF (ARTY), or take an active approach with the iShares A.I. Innovation and Tech Active ETF (BAI), which seeks to maximize total return and invest in companies across the AI tech stack.

We believe many investors are looking to diversify within their AI exposure, and their attention could soon shift to areas like defense, where spending has risen amidst shifts from physical systems towards digital capabilities. While AI or “digital” infrastructure has garnered more attention than defense in recent years, we believe investor attention could increase as new defense technologies and risks continue to emerge.

Investors interested in the theme of U.S. defense may consider the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA), or take an active global approach to companies across aerospace, defense, and cybersecurity with the iShares Defense Industrials Active ETF (IDEF).

Global opportunities are continuing to emerge across infrastructure from digital or AI-driven infrastructure, to water & waste, and beyond.

In our view, this growth in infrastructure is going to require massive amounts of energy to power it. Sourcing that power presents many opportunities (and challenges) across the globe.

Investors interested in infrastructure may take a global active approach with the iShares Infrastructure Active ETF (BILT), which seeks to maximize long-term total returns by investing in securities of infrastructure-related companies. Investors may also seek a U.S. focused approach with iShares U.S. Infrastructure ETF (IFRA). Investors specifically interested in targeting U.S. power infrastructure exposure may consider the iShares U.S. Power Infrastructure ETF (POWR).

As themes continue to drive markets, it’s worth asking ourselves what may come next? One trend we see emerging is new ways to access markets.

One such way could be through tokenized assets, or assets that have their ownership rights converted  into digital tokens on a blockchain. They are rising in popularity, as evidenced by a rise of stablecoin adoption.⁴ Stablecoins are one example of tokenization, where the underlying asset is a fiat currency like the U.S. Dollar.

In our view, as tokenization continues to rise, so will the opportunity to access assets beyond cash and U.S. Treasuries via the blockchain.

The acceleration of themes like AI and infrastructure continue to have wide-ranging implications, especially as new sub-themes emerge and converge, including depth of AI usage, a changing defense landscape, and ongoing concerns around straining energy infrastructure. We believe it is important for investors to continue exploring ways to invest in the forces that are shaping the world around them, as well as to consider what may be coming next.

To learn more about our outlook for U.S. equities and other asset classes read our latest Investment Directions.