Fed Outlook 2026: Rate Forecasts and Fixed Income Strategies

Key takeaways

  • We believe the most likely path for Fed policy in 2026 is for the central bank to bring rates down from the current range of 3.50% to 3.75% to closer to 3% over the course of the year.
  • Ultimately, Fed policy in 2026 will depend on economic data, particularly on inflation and the labor market. But Fed Chairman Jay Powell’s term expires in May 2026 and a potential new chair may result in some uncertainty.
  • Given the expected path of Fed policy, we see opportunities for investors in the belly of the yield curve, managing interest rate risk with bond laddering and seeking higher income outside of core bonds.
SGOV

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BINC

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What’s our outlook for Fed policy in 2026?

At its final meeting of 2025, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%; the Fed has now cut rates by 175 basis points since September 2024.2

So, what may be in store for Fed policy in 2026? And how can investors use bond ETFs to position fixed income portfolios to potentially benefit from the Fed’s expected path? Read on to find out.

Figure 1: Federal funds rate: A brief history

Line chart depicting the federal funds target rate over time.

Source: Bloomberg and US Federal Reserve using the federal funds rate – upper bound from July 2006 to December 2025.

Chart description: Line chart depicting the federal funds target rate over time.


Fed forecast for 2026: What does the dot plot say?

One of the best ways to get insight into how the U.S. central bank views the economy is the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which was first released in 2012. This data pack includes the so-called Dot Plot, which incorporates each Fed governor’s expectation for the fed funds rate over the next few years.

The Dot Plot is not a perfect predictor but can help provide investors with a guide to the likely path of Fed policy. For example, the December 2024 Dot Plot indicated the governors’ forward expectations for the overnight rate was in the 3.75% to 4% range. The overnight rate ended this year at 3.50-3.75%, within 0.25% of the median dot from last year.3

The SEP also includes long-term forecasts from Fed governors, which vary widely across the committee. The Fed meetings in the second half of 2025 revealed a committee with more dissenters, or governors who did not vote with the majority.  The highest, or most “hawkish” estimates call for a longer run policy rate as high as 3.875%, while the lower, more “dovish” governors expect that rate to be around 2.625%. (See Figure 2)

Figure 2: December 2025 “Dot Plot”

Line chart displaying the FOMC "Dot Plot", showing the highest, median and lowest forecasts for the target Fed Funds Rate.

Source: US Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections as of 12/10/2025.

Chart description: Line chart displaying the FOMC "Dot Plot", showing the highest, median and lowest forecasts for the target Fed Funds Rate.


Looking out into 2026, a new Federal Reserve Chair will likely be selected as Jerome Powell’s term expires on May 15, 2026. We believe the most likely path is for the Fed to pause early in the year.  Once a new Chair is in seat, then the Fed may seek to cut interest rates one or two times to bring overnight rates closer to the 3% to 3.25% range.

Any changes in rates will depend on how the inflation and employment data evolves. Be on the lookout for changes in messaging in 2026 when a new Chair is named.

As of December 2025, inflation rates still remain above the Fed 2% target. Mixed data on the employment picture will keep the central bank reviewing monthly releases throughout the year and cautious about meeting both objectives for its dual mandate (price stability and full employment). If monetary policy is too restrictive in an effort to subdue inflation, it may curb economic growth and lead to job losses.

2026 FOMC meeting schedule

Caption:

Description for table data...

First QuarterSecond QuarterThird Quarter Forth Quarter
January 28April 29July 29October 28
March 18*June 17*September 16*December 9*

* Summary of economic projections released.

Fed balance sheet: Another tool to watch in 2026

Since the Global Financial Crisis, the Fed has increased its use of its balance sheet — the ability to hold U.S. Treasury, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) — as a means of governing the supply and demand for longer-term interest rates, which generally fall outside the scope of its fed funds rate.

By buying bonds, the Fed aims to lower long-term interest rates, making borrowing cheaper and stimulating economic activity. Conversely, reducing its holdings through bonds sales or letting bonds mature can exert upward pressure on interest rates, tightening monetary conditions.

The Fed’s balance sheet was increased through bond purchases during the COVID-19 pandemic.

  • In May 2022, the FOMC announced that it would begin reducing the size of the balance sheet.
  • In May 2024, the committee announced that it was slowing the pace of the reduction from $60 billion to $25 billion for U.S. Treasuries while  maintaining the MBS reduction at $35 billion per month. The Fed is accomplishing this by letting bonds mature and not selling them into the market. From May 2022 to December 2025, the Fed’s balance sheet declined by $2.4 trillion, from $8.9 trillion to $6.5 trillion.
  • Beginning in December 2025, the Fed will reinvest maturing U.S. Treasury principal payments into Treasuries and maturing agency MBS into Treasury bills.

At the December 2025 meeting, the Fed approved new purchases of Treasury bills and coupon bonds out to three years at the pace of up to $40 billion per month for reserve management, not quantitative easing. This pace will serve to increase the balance sheet and provide the central bank with an ample supply of reserves.  This operation is expected to be used until April 2026.

Figure 3: Composition of the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet

Area chart displaying the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in three categories.

Source: U.S. Federal Reserve as of Dec. 10, 2025. “Other holdings” include various types of assets such as loans, foreign currency holdings and repurchase agreements.

Chart description: Area chart displaying the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in three categories: U.S. Treasuries, Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and other holdings.


Fixed income investing in 2026

Under this market backdrop, here are some ways investors can use bond ETFs to position their portfolios:

  • Put cash to work: If overnight interest rates stay higher for longer, investors could consider allocating to 0-3 month Treasuries or diversified short duration bonds. Investors interested in short-term bonds may consider the iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) and the  iShares Short Duration Bond Active ETF (NEAR).
  • Focus on the belly of the curve: Consider adding some intermediate duration with the belly of the curve; investors interested in doing so may consider the iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI).
  • Build bond ladders: Bond ladders hold an equal weight to each calendar year and can allow investors to lock in income before interest rates fall.
  • Seek higher income: Potentially boost fixed income returns with higher yielding bonds, such as high yield, emerging markets, bank loans and collateralized load obligations (CLOs). Investors interested in higher yielding bonds may consider the iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF  (USHY), the iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB), the iShares Flexible Income Active ETF (BINC) and the  iShares AAA CLO Active ETF (CLOA).

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    Any links to third-party websites are provided for use at your own discretion. Each third party is solely responsible for the content presented and availability of its website. BlackRock does not control, monitor or maintain third-party websites, their content or the products/services they offer. Content may change without notice. When you leave BlackRock’s website and enter a third-party website, you will be subject to that site’s terms, policies and/or notices, including those related to privacy and security, as applicable. Please review those policies and notices on the third-party website.

    Before engaging Fidelity or any broker-dealer, you should evaluate the overall fees and charges of the firm as well as the services provided. Free commission offer applies to online purchases of select iShares ETFs in a Fidelity account. The sale of ETFs is subject to an activity assessment fee (from $0.01 to $0.03 per $1,000 of principal). For iShares ETFs, Fidelity receives compensation from the ETF sponsor and/or its affiliates in connection with an exclusive long-term marketing program that includes promotion of iShares ETFs and inclusion of iShares funds in certain Fidelity Brokerage Services platforms and investment programs. Please note, this security will not be marginable for 30 days from the settlement date, at which time it will automatically become eligible for margin collateral. Additional information about the sources, amounts, and terms of compensation can be found in the ETF’s prospectus and related documents. Fidelity may add or waive commissions on ETFs without prior notice.

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    ©2024 BlackRock, Inc or its affiliates. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK, iSHARES, iBONDS, LIFEPATH, ALADDIN and the iShares Core Graphic are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.

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    Any links to third-party websites are provided for use at your own discretion. Each third party is solely responsible for the content presented and availability of its website. BlackRock does not control, monitor or maintain third-party websites, their content or the products/services they offer. Content may change without notice. When you leave BlackRock’s website and enter a third-party website, you will be subject to that site’s terms, policies and/or notices, including those related to privacy and security, as applicable. Please review those policies and notices on the third-party website.

    Before engaging Fidelity or any broker-dealer, you should evaluate the overall fees and charges of the firm as well as the services provided. Free commission offer applies to online purchases of select iShares ETFs in a Fidelity account. The sale of ETFs is subject to an activity assessment fee (from $0.01 to $0.03 per $1,000 of principal). For iShares ETFs, Fidelity receives compensation from the ETF sponsor and/or its affiliates in connection with an exclusive long-term marketing program that includes promotion of iShares ETFs and inclusion of iShares funds in certain Fidelity Brokerage Services platforms and investment programs. Please note, this security will not be marginable for 30 days from the settlement date, at which time it will automatically become eligible for margin collateral. Additional information about the sources, amounts, and terms of compensation can be found in the ETF’s prospectus and related documents. Fidelity may add or waive commissions on ETFs without prior notice.

    The Funds are distributed by BlackRock Investments, LLC (together with its affiliates, “BlackRock”).

    ©2024 BlackRock, Inc or its affiliates. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK, iSHARES, iBONDS, LIFEPATH, ALADDIN and the iShares Core Graphic are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.

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  • iShares ETFs are available to purchase through a brokerage account or with a financial advisor.

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    Carefully consider the Funds' investment objectives, risk factors, and charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the Funds' prospectuses or, if available, the summary prospectuses, which may be obtained by visiting the iShares ETF and BlackRock Fund prospectus pages. Read the prospectus carefully before investing. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

    Any links to third-party websites are provided for use at your own discretion. Each third party is solely responsible for the content presented and availability of its website. BlackRock does not control, monitor or maintain third-party websites, their content or the products/services they offer. Content may change without notice. When you leave BlackRock’s website and enter a third-party website, you will be subject to that site’s terms, policies and/or notices, including those related to privacy and security, as applicable. Please review those policies and notices on the third-party website.

    Before engaging Fidelity or any broker-dealer, you should evaluate the overall fees and charges of the firm as well as the services provided. Free commission offer applies to online purchases of select iShares ETFs in a Fidelity account. The sale of ETFs is subject to an activity assessment fee (from $0.01 to $0.03 per $1,000 of principal). For iShares ETFs, Fidelity receives compensation from the ETF sponsor and/or its affiliates in connection with an exclusive long-term marketing program that includes promotion of iShares ETFs and inclusion of iShares funds in certain Fidelity Brokerage Services platforms and investment programs. Please note, this security will not be marginable for 30 days from the settlement date, at which time it will automatically become eligible for margin collateral. Additional information about the sources, amounts, and terms of compensation can be found in the ETF’s prospectus and related documents. Fidelity may add or waive commissions on ETFs without prior notice.

    The Funds are distributed by BlackRock Investments, LLC (together with its affiliates, “BlackRock”).

    ©2024 BlackRock, Inc or its affiliates. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK, iSHARES, iBONDS, LIFEPATH, ALADDIN and the iShares Core Graphic are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.

    iCRMH1124U/S-3985892

  • iShares ETFs are available to purchase through a brokerage account or with a financial advisor.

    Buy through your brokerage

    iShares funds are available through online brokerage firms. All iShares ETFs and ETPs trade commission free online through Fidelity.

    By clicking on the button below, you will leave BlackRock’s website.

    Buy now on Fidelity

    Contact your advisor

    Contact a financial professional to discuss how iShares ETFs and ETPs can fit in your investment portfolio.

    Carefully consider the Funds' investment objectives, risk factors, and charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the Funds' prospectuses or, if available, the summary prospectuses, which may be obtained by visiting the iShares ETF and BlackRock Fund prospectus pages. Read the prospectus carefully before investing. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

    Any links to third-party websites are provided for use at your own discretion. Each third party is solely responsible for the content presented and availability of its website. BlackRock does not control, monitor or maintain third-party websites, their content or the products/services they offer. Content may change without notice. When you leave BlackRock’s website and enter a third-party website, you will be subject to that site’s terms, policies and/or notices, including those related to privacy and security, as applicable. Please review those policies and notices on the third-party website.

    Before engaging Fidelity or any broker-dealer, you should evaluate the overall fees and charges of the firm as well as the services provided. Free commission offer applies to online purchases of select iShares ETFs in a Fidelity account. The sale of ETFs is subject to an activity assessment fee (from $0.01 to $0.03 per $1,000 of principal). For iShares ETFs, Fidelity receives compensation from the ETF sponsor and/or its affiliates in connection with an exclusive long-term marketing program that includes promotion of iShares ETFs and inclusion of iShares funds in certain Fidelity Brokerage Services platforms and investment programs. Please note, this security will not be marginable for 30 days from the settlement date, at which time it will automatically become eligible for margin collateral. Additional information about the sources, amounts, and terms of compensation can be found in the ETF’s prospectus and related documents. Fidelity may add or waive commissions on ETFs without prior notice.

    The Funds are distributed by BlackRock Investments, LLC (together with its affiliates, “BlackRock”).

    ©2024 BlackRock, Inc or its affiliates. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK, iSHARES, iBONDS, LIFEPATH, ALADDIN and the iShares Core Graphic are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.

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Photo: Karen Veraa-Perry, CFA

Karen Veraa-Perry, CFA

Head of U.S. iShares Fixed Income Strategy