INSIDE THE MARKET

Investment Directions: 2026 outlook

Gargi Pal Chaudhuri, Kristy Akullian, CFA Jan 05, 2026 Equity

AI, income, & diversifiers

Key takeaways

  • We expect 2026 to be characterized by above-trend growth, easing policy, and accelerating productivity — a backdrop we believe favors selective risk taking.
  • This market requires new portfolio construction tools. AI remains a high conviction theme, but we see improving fundamentals elsewhere as a way to build diversification.
  • The need for income will motivate allocation decisions. We believe in a portfolio approach, sourced across EM debt, securitized assets, dividend stocks and options strategies.

Hi, I am Kristy Akullian and I am excited to introduce our 2026 Year Ahead Investment Guide. 


The new year brings a market characterized by above-trend growth, easing policy, and accelerating productivity. We believe this backdrop favors risk taking, but weakness in the labor market, rich valuations, and an uncertain forward path for interest rates remain risks, arguing for greater selectivity.

 

Let’s dive in...

 

Bonds reemerged in their traditional role as “ballast” in portfolios in 2025, though the relationship between stocks and bonds remains less stable than in prior decades. We believe the intermediate portion of the yield curve, or the “belly”, provides an appealing mix of ballast and income. We also see emerging market bonds presenting a compelling source of income, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, easier global financial conditions, and improving sovereign balance sheets.

 

Across asset classes, AI remains the dominant theme for investors, as it catalyzes a capital-intensive expansion, boosting productivity and sustaining earnings strength. In U.S. equities, we also see fundamentals improving in non-AI portions of the market as earnings growth across the S&P 500 strengthened meaningfully in 2025.

 

Still, the prevalence of the AI theme within investor portfolios, whether they’ve intentionally allocated to it or not, introduces risks of higher concentration and correlations. We see a variety of ways to seek diversification:

 

International equities, specifically emerging markets in Asia, can help investors diversify within the AI theme, while those wanting to diversify outside of the AI trade may also consider developed market strategies, which tend to have a tilt towards value and lower earnings volatility, or pay out dividends.

 

Additionally, to address concentration risk and reduced hedged reliability of traditional assets, consider what we call a “diversified diversifier” using alternative strategies and asset classes that have a low correlation to stocks.

 

Finally, while easing policy rates should prove a boon to risk assets broadly, this can present challenges for income-oriented investors. We believe investors should take a whole portfolio approach to income, with a range of solutions from bonds to options income or dividend strategies.

 

For a deeper dive into our outlook and relevant product ideas, head over to iShares.com or BlackRock’s Advisor Center to read the full Year Ahead Investment Directions.

 

Disclosures:

 

Carefully consider the Funds' investment objectives, risk factors, and charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the Funds' prospectuses or, if available, the summary prospectuses, which may be obtained by visiting the iShares Fund and BlackRock Fund prospectus pages. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.

 

Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

 

This material represents an assessment of the market environment as of the date indicated; is subject to change; and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding the funds or any issuer or security in particular. The strategies discussed are strictly for illustrative and educational purposes and are not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. There is no guarantee that any strategies discussed will be effective. This information should not be relied upon as research, investment advice, or a recommendation regarding any products, strategies, or any security in particular. This material is strictly for illustrative, educational, or informational purposes and is subject to change.

 

Prepared by BlackRock Investments, LLC, member FINRA.

 

© 2025 BlackRock, Inc or its affiliates. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK, iSHARES, and the iShares Core Graphic are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.

 

iCRMH1225U/S-5081891
Video 02:40

Hi, I am Kristy Akullian and I am excited to introduce our 2026 Year Ahead Investment Guide. 


The new year brings a market characterized by above-trend growth, easing policy, and accelerating productivity. We believe this backdrop favors risk taking, but weakness in the labor market, rich valuations, and an uncertain forward path for interest rates remain risks, arguing for greater selectivity.

 

Let’s dive in...

 

Bonds reemerged in their traditional role as “ballast” in portfolios in 2025, though the relationship between stocks and bonds remains less stable than in prior decades. We believe the intermediate portion of the yield curve, or the “belly”, provides an appealing mix of ballast and income. We also see emerging market bonds presenting a compelling source of income, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, easier global financial conditions, and improving sovereign balance sheets.

 

Across asset classes, AI remains the dominant theme for investors, as it catalyzes a capital-intensive expansion, boosting productivity and sustaining earnings strength. In U.S. equities, we also see fundamentals improving in non-AI portions of the market as earnings growth across the S&P 500 strengthened meaningfully in 2025.

 

Still, the prevalence of the AI theme within investor portfolios, whether they’ve intentionally allocated to it or not, introduces risks of higher concentration and correlations. We see a variety of ways to seek diversification:

 

International equities, specifically emerging markets in Asia, can help investors diversify within the AI theme, while those wanting to diversify outside of the AI trade may also consider developed market strategies, which tend to have a tilt towards value and lower earnings volatility, or pay out dividends.

 

Additionally, to address concentration risk and reduced hedged reliability of traditional assets, consider what we call a “diversified diversifier” using alternative strategies and asset classes that have a low correlation to stocks.

 

Finally, while easing policy rates should prove a boon to risk assets broadly, this can present challenges for income-oriented investors. We believe investors should take a whole portfolio approach to income, with a range of solutions from bonds to options income or dividend strategies.

 

For a deeper dive into our outlook and relevant product ideas, head over to iShares.com or BlackRock’s Advisor Center to read the full Year Ahead Investment Directions.

 

Disclosures:

 

Carefully consider the Funds' investment objectives, risk factors, and charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the Funds' prospectuses or, if available, the summary prospectuses, which may be obtained by visiting the iShares Fund and BlackRock Fund prospectus pages. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.

 

Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

 

This material represents an assessment of the market environment as of the date indicated; is subject to change; and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding the funds or any issuer or security in particular. The strategies discussed are strictly for illustrative and educational purposes and are not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. There is no guarantee that any strategies discussed will be effective. This information should not be relied upon as research, investment advice, or a recommendation regarding any products, strategies, or any security in particular. This material is strictly for illustrative, educational, or informational purposes and is subject to change.

 

Prepared by BlackRock Investments, LLC, member FINRA.

 

© 2025 BlackRock, Inc or its affiliates. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK, iSHARES, and the iShares Core Graphic are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.

 

iCRMH1225U/S-5081891

Ideas to consider

DYNF

iShares U.S. Equity Factor Rotation Active ETF

Seek outperformance through active rotation across U.S. equity factors.

View DYNF
BALI

iShares U.S. Large Cap Premium Income Active ETF

Seeks to enhance monthly income by selling call options.

View BALI
BINC

iShares Flexible Income Active ETF

Seek to maximize income with an active fixed income approach.

View BINC

What will drive markets in 2026?

We believe 2026 will be characterized by above-trend economic growth, easing policy, and accelerating productivity. We believe this backdrop favors risk taking, but weakness in the labor market, rich valuations, and an uncertain forward path for interest rates remain risks, arguing for greater selectivity.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) remains the dominant theme for investors, as it catalyzes a capital-intensive expansion, boosting productivity and sustaining earnings strength. With over $500 billion spent on data centers in 2025 alone, and another $5 trillion to $8 trillion in overall AI infrastructure spending expected through 2030, capital expenditures underpin not only corporate profit expectations, but indeed macroeconomic growth forecasts.1 We continue to believe this buildout is only in its early stages and will continue to drive growth in the quarters and years to come.

Still, the prevalence of the AI theme introduces risks of higher concentration and correlations. Powered in large part by AI-related returns, U.S. equity indices have advanced to new all-time highs and have become even more concentrated: the 10 largest companies in the S&P 500 now constitute over 40% of the index market cap.2 We believe demand for tailored and targeted diversification will be a key focus for investors in 2026, and a key motivator of fund flows in the year ahead.

Easing policy rates should prove a boon to risk assets, but present new challenges for investors seeking reliable income sources. The volume of capital still idling on the sidelines — nearly $9.1 trillion in money market funds — may need to be reallocated to achieve long-term income objectives.3

Overall, investors are moving into 2026 with a higher-than-average optimism about markets (Figure 1). Nearly 50% of respondents in our latest client survey characterized themselves as bullish, and those who did were most likely to take risk in U.S. equities (48%) and emerging markets (24%).4 Investors identifying as bearish were more likely to look to developed markets abroad (24%) or consider Alts (24%).

Figure 1: Investors are feeling mostly bullish

What is your current risk outlook?

Source: BlackRock webinar on Dec. 10, 2025, share of 2,004 unique respondents shown in response to the question “What is your current risk sentiment (1-5)?”

Chart description: Pie chart showing proportion of respondents who responded to the question "What is your current market outlook?" with very bearish, slightly bearish, neutral, slightly bullish, and very bullish.

What’s the outlook for U.S. equities?

We remain highly convicted on AI in U.S. equities, but we’re also finding more to like in select non-AI pockets as fundamentals improve. Earnings growth across the S&P 500 strengthened meaningfully in 2025 – presenting broad opportunities for investors across the spectrum of U.S. equities.

We are grounded in two views: 

1. AI: still in early years of the datacenter buildout

AI remains our top equity investment theme, as we believe the market continues to underappreciate the opportunity of the AI data center buildout. Overall, we believe AI-related names have the potential to lead again this year. AI stocks grew earnings markedly faster than their non-AI counterparts since the AI chatbot ChatGPT was released: the 46 stocks in the S&P index that we identify as AI stocks grew their aggregate net income by 30% per year from 2023–2025, versus just 3% for the non-AI cohort.5 We believe the above-average earnings growth can carry its momentum into 2026 as the AI infrastructure buildout is still in its early stages.

Figure 2: Even with strong returns in 2025, AI stocks got cheaper

Decomposition of return – AI vs. non Al

Source: Bloomberg, data as of Dec. 22, 2025. AI and non-AI companies comprised by a custom basket by GPS Investment strategy. AI companies comprised of 46 companies within the S&P 500. Non-AI companies are S&P 500 ex AI basket companies. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Chart description: Illustration showing the 2025 total returns represented by dots and stacked bar chart showing the decomposition of those returns amongst the categories of Dividends, Earnings Growth, Valuation, and Total Return between AI S&P 500 companies and the rest of the index.

Even with strong fundamentals, AI related stocks saw wide swings in stock performance and high dispersion. Of the 46 AI stocks, 44 had a drawdown of at least 20% in 2025. Yet, 19 managed to post a total return of over 20% for the year. At the same time, 12 AI stocks in the S&P 500 had negative performance in 2025. We expect volatility and dispersion to remain a persistent feature in 2026, as winners and losers within the AI theme emerge.6

DYNF

iShares U.S. Equity Factor Rotation Active ETF

Seeks to outperform the investment results of the large- and mid-capitalization U.S. equity markets.

View DYNF

Based on recent data, we expect over $700 billion to be spent on AI infrastructure in 2026 as hyperscalers, sovereign entities, enterprises, neoclouds, and AI labs build increasingly large AI data centers that can manufacture “AI tokens,” or units of data used for AI models to generate intelligence.7 The scale and complexity of the intelligence being generated is expanding exponentially as agentic AI and systems that process multiple types of data become more capable. So far, most people that have used AI have interacted with text-to-text chatbots, which utilize little computing power when compared with other uses of AI, such as image/video generation, agentic systems, and robotics. These more complex use cases (such as self-driving taxis) are in their infancy but expanding fast.8 In our view, 2026 will bring more technological progress, with new capabilities and productivity gains unlocked by larger AI models trained on today’s most advanced chips.

2. Beyond AI: Improving fundamentals stretch across U.S. equities

The second half of 2025 delivered evidence of broadening participation, in both market performance and earnings growth. All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 posted annual gains — a rarity in recent years — and index returns were less concentrated.9 The top five weights in the S&P 500 contributed 29% of the index’s 11% gain in the latter half of the year.10 Since 2020, the top five names have been responsible for 45% of annual returns.11

Earnings growth outside of the AI theme strengthened meaningfully in Q3. Ten of the 11 sectors beat preseason forecasts in the third quarter, and the median stock delivered its strongest earnings per share growth in four years. Using the S&P 500 excluding information technology and communication services as a proxy, year-over-year earnings per share growth accelerated to 12% in Q3 from just 3% in Q2.12 While that level still trails tech and comms growth (24%), the rate of change in our view underpins a positive inflection in fundamentals beyond AI.

Importantly, market performance rarely mirrors the level of earnings growth — returns are often more sensitive to changes in expectations. Last year, the S&P 500’s median weekly return was positive in weeks with net upgrades to forward earnings per share forecasts, and negative in weeks with net downgrades.13

Figure 3: Gap closes between growth and value

Source: BlackRock, Bloomberg, Refinitiv. S&P Growth represented by S&P 500 Growth Index, S&P Value represented by S&P 500 Value Index, as of Dec. 9, 2025. Asterisks represent forecasts (as of Dec. 9, 2025). Forward looking estimates may not come to pass. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Chart description: Bar chart showing the YOY earnings growths on a percentage basis for the S&P 500, S&P 500 Growth companies, and S&P 500 Value companies for the year 2024, 2025 with rest of year expectations, and 2026 forecast.

This backdrop supports our broader U.S. equity market outlook: we remain most highly convicted on AI, but turn more constructive elsewhere, too.

  • First, we see opportunity in broad value exposures to provide diversification within U.S. equities as fundamentals improve beyond the AI-led growth complex. Forward estimates point to further momentum: growth equities continue to lead, but the gap with value narrows meaningfully through 2026 as value equities are forecasted to deliver their first double-digit earnings growth in recent years (Figure 3). We keep our preference for solutions that can actively rotate style exposure.
  • Second, we see opportunity in select tactical pockets: we expect gold miners to benefit from stable gold prices and lower U.S. real rates, in line with our outlook for a more accommodative Fed path in the first half of 2026. We also like financials amid a steeper yield curve and further mergers & acquisitions and bond issuance, alongside a supportive earnings backdrop, with every industry in the sector forecast to post earnings per share growth over the next year.14

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    ©2024 BlackRock, Inc or its affiliates. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK, iSHARES, iBONDS, LIFEPATH, ALADDIN and the iShares Core Graphic are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.

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  • iShares ETFs are available to purchase through a brokerage account or with a financial advisor.

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    Any links to third-party websites are provided for use at your own discretion. Each third party is solely responsible for the content presented and availability of its website. BlackRock does not control, monitor or maintain third-party websites, their content or the products/services they offer. Content may change without notice. When you leave BlackRock’s website and enter a third-party website, you will be subject to that site’s terms, policies and/or notices, including those related to privacy and security, as applicable. Please review those policies and notices on the third-party website.

    Before engaging Fidelity or any broker-dealer, you should evaluate the overall fees and charges of the firm as well as the services provided. Free commission offer applies to online purchases of select iShares ETFs in a Fidelity account. The sale of ETFs is subject to an activity assessment fee (from $0.01 to $0.03 per $1,000 of principal). For iShares ETFs, Fidelity receives compensation from the ETF sponsor and/or its affiliates in connection with an exclusive long-term marketing program that includes promotion of iShares ETFs and inclusion of iShares funds in certain Fidelity Brokerage Services platforms and investment programs. Please note, this security will not be marginable for 30 days from the settlement date, at which time it will automatically become eligible for margin collateral. Additional information about the sources, amounts, and terms of compensation can be found in the ETF’s prospectus and related documents. Fidelity may add or waive commissions on ETFs without prior notice.

    The Funds are distributed by BlackRock Investments, LLC (together with its affiliates, “BlackRock”).

    ©2024 BlackRock, Inc or its affiliates. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK, iSHARES, iBONDS, LIFEPATH, ALADDIN and the iShares Core Graphic are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.

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  • iShares ETFs are available to purchase through a brokerage account or with a financial advisor.

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    Carefully consider the Funds' investment objectives, risk factors, and charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the Funds' prospectuses or, if available, the summary prospectuses, which may be obtained by visiting the iShares ETF and BlackRock Fund prospectus pages. Read the prospectus carefully before investing. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

    Any links to third-party websites are provided for use at your own discretion. Each third party is solely responsible for the content presented and availability of its website. BlackRock does not control, monitor or maintain third-party websites, their content or the products/services they offer. Content may change without notice. When you leave BlackRock’s website and enter a third-party website, you will be subject to that site’s terms, policies and/or notices, including those related to privacy and security, as applicable. Please review those policies and notices on the third-party website.

    Before engaging Fidelity or any broker-dealer, you should evaluate the overall fees and charges of the firm as well as the services provided. Free commission offer applies to online purchases of select iShares ETFs in a Fidelity account. The sale of ETFs is subject to an activity assessment fee (from $0.01 to $0.03 per $1,000 of principal). For iShares ETFs, Fidelity receives compensation from the ETF sponsor and/or its affiliates in connection with an exclusive long-term marketing program that includes promotion of iShares ETFs and inclusion of iShares funds in certain Fidelity Brokerage Services platforms and investment programs. Please note, this security will not be marginable for 30 days from the settlement date, at which time it will automatically become eligible for margin collateral. Additional information about the sources, amounts, and terms of compensation can be found in the ETF’s prospectus and related documents. Fidelity may add or waive commissions on ETFs without prior notice.

    The Funds are distributed by BlackRock Investments, LLC (together with its affiliates, “BlackRock”).

    ©2024 BlackRock, Inc or its affiliates. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK, iSHARES, iBONDS, LIFEPATH, ALADDIN and the iShares Core Graphic are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.

    iCRMH1124U/S-3985892

  • iShares ETFs are available to purchase through a brokerage account or with a financial advisor.

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    iShares funds are available through online brokerage firms. All iShares ETFs and ETPs trade commission free online through Fidelity.

    By clicking on the button below, you will leave BlackRock’s website.

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    Contact your advisor

    Contact a financial professional to discuss how iShares ETFs and ETPs can fit in your investment portfolio.

    Carefully consider the Funds' investment objectives, risk factors, and charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the Funds' prospectuses or, if available, the summary prospectuses, which may be obtained by visiting the iShares ETF and BlackRock Fund prospectus pages. Read the prospectus carefully before investing. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

    Any links to third-party websites are provided for use at your own discretion. Each third party is solely responsible for the content presented and availability of its website. BlackRock does not control, monitor or maintain third-party websites, their content or the products/services they offer. Content may change without notice. When you leave BlackRock’s website and enter a third-party website, you will be subject to that site’s terms, policies and/or notices, including those related to privacy and security, as applicable. Please review those policies and notices on the third-party website.

    Before engaging Fidelity or any broker-dealer, you should evaluate the overall fees and charges of the firm as well as the services provided. Free commission offer applies to online purchases of select iShares ETFs in a Fidelity account. The sale of ETFs is subject to an activity assessment fee (from $0.01 to $0.03 per $1,000 of principal). For iShares ETFs, Fidelity receives compensation from the ETF sponsor and/or its affiliates in connection with an exclusive long-term marketing program that includes promotion of iShares ETFs and inclusion of iShares funds in certain Fidelity Brokerage Services platforms and investment programs. Please note, this security will not be marginable for 30 days from the settlement date, at which time it will automatically become eligible for margin collateral. Additional information about the sources, amounts, and terms of compensation can be found in the ETF’s prospectus and related documents. Fidelity may add or waive commissions on ETFs without prior notice.

    The Funds are distributed by BlackRock Investments, LLC (together with its affiliates, “BlackRock”).

    ©2024 BlackRock, Inc or its affiliates. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK, iSHARES, iBONDS, LIFEPATH, ALADDIN and the iShares Core Graphic are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.

    iCRMH1124U/S-3985892

Can international equities outperform again?

The backdrop for global investing is shifting after a strong run for international markets in 2025. While a softer U.S. dollar may still support international exposures, the return boost from outright depreciation is unlikely to be as powerful as it was in 2025, in our view. This environment places greater emphasis on selectivity. Giving up U.S. exposure could be costly, so we believe investors may consider focusing on international markets with credible earnings growth, improving macro fundamentals, and diversification benefits relative to portfolios that have become heavily concentrated in U.S. growth and AI-centric equities.

We see two opportunity sets for international equities in the year ahead:

1. Diversify within the AI trade

We believe Asian emerging markets may offer a key source of earnings growth and AI differentiation. Emerging markets (EMs) have entered a cyclical upswing in activity, now accounting for about 41% of global nominal GDP, supported by easing financial conditions and recovering exports.15

We see the strongest opportunities in Asian emerging markets, which offer direct exposure to the global AI buildout and the highest earnings growth expectations alongside attractive fundamentals.

  • South Korea is our highest conviction equity market exposure, supported by positive sentiment, earnings momentum, and upward EPS revisions, while trading at a roughly 3% discount to its 10-year average P/E.16
  • Screening well on forward earnings growth are Taiwan, with 12-month EPS expectations of 20%, and China at 11%.17

Figure 4: Select EM earnings growth boosted by AI-associated industries

Source: LSEG Refinitiv, as of Dec. 8, 2025. EM industries categorized by IBES, developed markets represented by MSCI EAFE Index, Emerging markets represented by MSCI Emerging Markets Index. AI-associated industries selected if major constituents either develop AI tools and systems or leverages AI to transform its operations, services, and efficiency. Forward looking estimates may not come to pass.

Chart description: Bar chart displaying the 12 month forward earnings growth for the asset classes of EM tech hardware, EM info tech, and EM semiconductors, Emerging markets, EM retail, EM interactive media, and Developed markets. Bars are denoted as AI-related industries, developed markets, or emerging markets.

EMs in Asia complement U.S. mega-cap leaders with earlier-stage, capacity-driven beneficiaries. U.S. leadership is anchored in model development, chip design, cloud platforms, and enterprise software. Asia’s leadership is tied to semiconductor manufacturing, energy infrastructure and cost-efficient model deployment. The data highlights this distinction:

  • China, the largest market in EM Asia, has been more applications-led: platform and internet companies drove about 50% of 2025 market return. Recent model innovation reinforces this divergence.18 In December, the Chinese AI company, DeepSeek unveiled two upgraded open-source models reportedly trained at roughly 25x lower cost than GPT-5 alternatives, illustrating China’s progress in efficient model development.19
  • Semiconductors represent some 65% of Taiwan’s equity market (responsible for 77% of 2025 performance) and nearly 50% of Korea’s market (responsible for 55% of 2025 performance), the next largest regional exposures in EM Asia.20

Figure 5: Top 3 industries per market by weight
Caption:

Table showing the three largest equity sectors in Emerging markets, Developed markets, Asia ex-Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea with a distinction between those which are AI-related and those which are not.
MarketIndustryIndustry weight
Emerging marketsBanksSemiconductorsTech hardware17%16%6%
Developed marketsBanksPharmaceuticalsInsurance15%8%6%
Asia ex–JapanSemiconductorsBanksTech hardware18%13%7%
TaiwanSemiconductorsElectronic equipmentTech hardware65%11%6%
South KoreaTech hardwareSemiconductorsBanks31%16%7%
AI-relatedNon-Al related

Source: Bloomberg, as of Dec. 8, 2025. Regions represented by respective MSCI index, industry groups represented by S&P GICS industries.

2. Diversify outside the AI trade

While growth in developed markets (DM) has lagged EMs, many DM equity markets carry higher weights to value-oriented sectors, offering potential diversification from AI-led concentration. The policy backdrop supports selectivity: we do not expect fiscal or monetary easing to lift all DM sectors equally.

Dividend-paying equities can also serve as potential diversifiers in an AI-led equity sell-off. Their tilts toward value and lower earnings volatility can help counterbalance long-duration AI exposures. International dividend payers, in particular, can offer income stability and sector diversification at a time when recent U.S. equity returns have largely been tied to a relatively narrow group of AI beneficiaries.

Recent polling shows that our clients are increasingly looking internationally for portfolio diversification (38%), alongside traditional asset classes like alternatives and private markets.21

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Fixed income: Where are the opportunities?

Bonds resumed more of their traditional role as “ballast” in a portfolio in 2025, though the relationship between stocks and bonds remains less stable than in prior decades. Even so, the improved hedge effectiveness was likely a motivating factor in greater allocations. Fixed income ETFs saw another record year in 2025, with total flows of over $384 billion; active ETFs captured a record 38% of fixed income inflows.22 We expect these trends to continue as investors increasingly seek active management to navigate a more complex market environment driven by the tug of war between yields across fixed income remaining attractive but spreads across many asset classes persisting at historical tight levels.23

The “belly” of the curve remains our highest conviction fixed income preference. Equity-bond correlations have recently become less positive for longer stretches of time in intermediate parts of the curve than in much longer durations (Figure 6). While not a perfectly reliable hedge, this part of the curve has historically helped provide resiliency when growth slows.

Figure 6: After an unusual 5 years, equity-bond correlations in the belly of the curve have been slightly negative

Source: Morningstar data, as of Dec. 11, 2025. The 2, 5, 10 and 30 are the tenors of Treasuries. 2-year, 5-year, etc. The correlation shown here is the rolling 20-week correlation with the S&P 500 index and the Bloomberg US Generic Govt 2 Year, 5 Year, 10 Year, and 30 Year calculation. Correlation is a statistical measure of how two variables move in relation to each other, ranging from -1 (perfectly negative correlation) to 0 (perfectly uncorrelated) to 1 (perfectly correlated). 

Chart description: Stacked line chart showing 20 week rolling correlations with the S&P 500 index for the 2 yr, 5 yr, 10 yr, and 30 yr US treasury bond indexes from May 2019 to Dec 2025.

Longer duration bonds performed well in the latter half of 2025. after term premia reached their highest level since 2014 and fiscal concerns receded.24 The Fed’s reserve management purchases, alongside continued reinvestment of maturing agency mortgage-backed securities into Treasuries, also partially allay supply concerns.25 However, long duration bonds have been a less reliable diversifier and risks remain. Inflation remains above target and the fiscal stimulus enacted in 2025 alongside accelerating growth suggests inflation may be slow to fall.26 Still, we believe longer-duration bonds can play a role in investor portfolios, particularly as a hedge if economic conditions deteriorate materially — especially if a slowing of AI-related investment spending were to drive that scenario.

BINC

iShares Flexible Income Active ETF

Seek to maximize income with an active fixed income approach.

View BINC

Within corporate credit, carry and income are likely to drive returns, as spreads begin 2026 at tight levels and supply rises. With U.S. Investment Grade spreads near historical tights, investors may find more attractive valuations and diversification benefits in U.S. High Yield Credit, Agency Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), and securitized products.27 High yield fundamentals have remained solid, but index spreads are below 300 basis points — something that has occurred only 5% of the time since January 2000.28 This means there may be little cushion for unexpected defaults. With the return to a normal credit cycle after a long period of financial repression, we anticipate more idiosyncratic dislocations within the high yield universe. Active management and systematic approaches can help identify relative opportunities within crowded credit markets.

Emerging markets remain a compelling source of income with constructive fundamentals and clean technical positioning even after a strong 2025. We expect a weaker U.S. dollar, lower developed-market rates, easier global financial conditions, improving sovereign balance sheets and prudent fiscal policies to support hard and local currency EM debt. Further, we expect manageable new supply and modest inflows to contribute to a gradual tightening in spreads. In our view, EM debt could provide an attractive and less crowded alternative to domestic spread products. Over the past year, EM debt, as well as structured and securitized U.S. dollar products, have enjoyed a higher risk-adjusted yield than U.S. corporate credit (Figure 7).

Figure 7: Risk-adjusted returns for U.S. dollar fixed income

Source: Bloomberg, as of Dec. 19, 2025. The 1-year Sharpe ratio is the excess return divided by the standard deviation of returns over 1 year. The time frame for the 1 yr Sharpe ratio shown above is December 19, 2024 to December 19, 2025. Categories represented by the following indexes: U.S Treasuries represented by ICE BofA US Treasury Index, U.S. IG Credit represented by ICE BofA US Investment Grade Index, U.S. MBS represented by ICE BofA US Mortgage Backed Securities Index, U.S HY Credit represented by Bloomberg U.S. High Yield Very Liquid Index, EM Debt represented by J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Core Index, and CLO represented by J.P. Morgan CLOIE AAA Index. Index performance is for illustrative purposes only. Index performance does not reflect any management fees or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Chart description: Bar chart comparing the 1-year Sharpe ratio for the asset classes of the U.S. Treasuries, U.S. IG Credit, U.S. MBS, U.S. HY Credit, EM Debt, CLO.

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Portfolio Insights: Seeking income and diversifying in an AI-powered market

We anticipate the most pressing portfolio challenges in 2026 will be sourcing reliable income and finding targeted diversification. Income may become challenged as the Fed has been cutting policy rates, while diversification takes on new urgency due to the increasing role that the AI theme plays in portfolios. We outline approaches to consider for these key challenges.

Income: Seeking portfolio income in a lower-rate world

Investors face a structurally different income regime in 2026 as markets transition toward an environment where further policy rate cuts are expected.29

Elevated yields in money market funds and other cash-like instruments are likely to fade as rates continue to fall. With an unprecedented amount of capital still concentrated in cash, income generation is increasingly becoming a portfolio-level priority.

At the same time, we believe the opportunity set for yield is expanding due to the combination of a resilient U.S. economy and strong AI-driven financing demand. Options income strategies can help investors with a differentiated source of return by seeking to capture volatility risk premium through covered call writing, generating income while maintaining some exposure to the equity market’s long-term growth potential.

Figure 8: Income tool kit
Caption:

Table showing income-focused investment vehicles, their asset classes, what they seek to provide, and benefits to adding them to a portfolio.
Investment vehicleAsset class What it seeks to provide Portfolio benefits
Dividend Equities Equity Defensive sector exposures and inflation-aware cash flows Balance growth-led AI exposures
Active Premium Income Derivatives Enhanced income via option premiums while staying in core exposures Decrease potential trade-off between income and growth trade with an actively managed equity allocation
Index Buy-write Derivatives Seeks to generate yield pick-up from option premiums May act as a potential hedge when rates are volatile
Public credit Fixed Income Attractive all-in yields even with tighter spreads, reliable carry Diversified sector exposure

Source: Bloomberg, BlackRock, view as of Dec. 9, 2025 from the BlackRock Investment and Portfolio Solutions team. Views are subject to change.

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    Contact a financial professional to discuss how iShares ETFs and ETPs can fit in your investment portfolio.

    Carefully consider the Funds' investment objectives, risk factors, and charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the Funds' prospectuses or, if available, the summary prospectuses, which may be obtained by visiting the iShares ETF and BlackRock Fund prospectus pages. Read the prospectus carefully before investing. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

    Any links to third-party websites are provided for use at your own discretion. Each third party is solely responsible for the content presented and availability of its website. BlackRock does not control, monitor or maintain third-party websites, their content or the products/services they offer. Content may change without notice. When you leave BlackRock’s website and enter a third-party website, you will be subject to that site’s terms, policies and/or notices, including those related to privacy and security, as applicable. Please review those policies and notices on the third-party website.

    Before engaging Fidelity or any broker-dealer, you should evaluate the overall fees and charges of the firm as well as the services provided. Free commission offer applies to online purchases of select iShares ETFs in a Fidelity account. The sale of ETFs is subject to an activity assessment fee (from $0.01 to $0.03 per $1,000 of principal). For iShares ETFs, Fidelity receives compensation from the ETF sponsor and/or its affiliates in connection with an exclusive long-term marketing program that includes promotion of iShares ETFs and inclusion of iShares funds in certain Fidelity Brokerage Services platforms and investment programs. Please note, this security will not be marginable for 30 days from the settlement date, at which time it will automatically become eligible for margin collateral. Additional information about the sources, amounts, and terms of compensation can be found in the ETF’s prospectus and related documents. Fidelity may add or waive commissions on ETFs without prior notice.

    The Funds are distributed by BlackRock Investments, LLC (together with its affiliates, “BlackRock”).

    ©2024 BlackRock, Inc or its affiliates. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK, iSHARES, iBONDS, LIFEPATH, ALADDIN and the iShares Core Graphic are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.

    iCRMH1124U/S-3985892

  • iShares ETFs are available to purchase through a brokerage account or with a financial advisor.

    Buy through your brokerage

    iShares funds are available through online brokerage firms. All iShares ETFs and ETPs trade commission free online through Fidelity.

    By clicking on the button below, you will leave BlackRock’s website.

    Buy now on Fidelity

    Contact your advisor

    Contact a financial professional to discuss how iShares ETFs and ETPs can fit in your investment portfolio.

    Carefully consider the Funds' investment objectives, risk factors, and charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the Funds' prospectuses or, if available, the summary prospectuses, which may be obtained by visiting the iShares ETF and BlackRock Fund prospectus pages. Read the prospectus carefully before investing. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

    Any links to third-party websites are provided for use at your own discretion. Each third party is solely responsible for the content presented and availability of its website. BlackRock does not control, monitor or maintain third-party websites, their content or the products/services they offer. Content may change without notice. When you leave BlackRock’s website and enter a third-party website, you will be subject to that site’s terms, policies and/or notices, including those related to privacy and security, as applicable. Please review those policies and notices on the third-party website.

    Before engaging Fidelity or any broker-dealer, you should evaluate the overall fees and charges of the firm as well as the services provided. Free commission offer applies to online purchases of select iShares ETFs in a Fidelity account. The sale of ETFs is subject to an activity assessment fee (from $0.01 to $0.03 per $1,000 of principal). For iShares ETFs, Fidelity receives compensation from the ETF sponsor and/or its affiliates in connection with an exclusive long-term marketing program that includes promotion of iShares ETFs and inclusion of iShares funds in certain Fidelity Brokerage Services platforms and investment programs. Please note, this security will not be marginable for 30 days from the settlement date, at which time it will automatically become eligible for margin collateral. Additional information about the sources, amounts, and terms of compensation can be found in the ETF’s prospectus and related documents. Fidelity may add or waive commissions on ETFs without prior notice.

    The Funds are distributed by BlackRock Investments, LLC (together with its affiliates, “BlackRock”).

    ©2024 BlackRock, Inc or its affiliates. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK, iSHARES, iBONDS, LIFEPATH, ALADDIN and the iShares Core Graphic are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.

    iCRMH1124U/S-3985892

Diversification: Seeking diversification in a more concentrated, AI-powered market

Many investors are considering the role of AI in their portfolios, whether they’ve intentionally allocated to the theme or not.30 A handful of mega-cap technology and AI-adjacent companies are responsible for an outsized portion of the S&P 500’s performance in recent years, and these firms now represent 38% of companies in the index.31 That shift has left many investors, even those without explicit AI allocations, more exposed to the same underlying growth and innovation drivers than they may realize.

Figure 9: Correlation of major asset classes to U.S. technology

Source: BlackRock, Bloomberg, Morningstar, LBMA, as of Dec. 8, 2025. Data is from January 2015 to August 2025,S&P 500 Information Technology (TR USD) to represent US tech, S&P 500 (TR USD), Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond (TR USD), Bloomberg Bitcoin spot price to represent Bitcoin, LBMA Gold Price PM (USD) to represent gold, Equity Market Neutral, Macro Trading, and Multi-strategy fund categories are represented by HFRI Equity market neutral Index, HFRI Multi-strategy Index, and HFRI Macro Trading Index, 60% S&P500/ 40% Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate hypothetical portfolio.

Chart description: Bar chart representing the correlation to U.S tech for the asset classes of Gold, Macro Trading, Bitcoin, Equity market neutral index, U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, Consumer Staples, Multi-strategy, Traditional 60/40 portfolio, and the S&P 500.

This concentration challenge is reinforced by a structural shift in how traditional hedges behave. For decades, long-duration government bonds reliably offset equity drawdowns, offering a dependable source of diversification.32 But that relationship has become less stable. Post-pandemic inflation uncertainty, larger supply-side and fiscal pressures, and heightened rate volatility have undermined the ability of duration to effectively hedge equity risk. While stock–bond correlations have improved in recent months, they remain far from the deeply negative levels that once anchored portfolio diversification. This means the traditional hedging relationship has not fully returned, leaving portfolios that appear diversified on paper potentially more exposed in practice.

IALT

iShares Systematic Alternatives Active ETF

Seeks differentiated sources of return across equities, credit, and macro strategies.

View IALT

To address concentration risk and the reduced hedge effectiveness of traditional assets, investors can build a “diversified diversifier” allocation. This is an intentional set of exposures that broaden return drivers and improve resilience across a wider range of macro regimes. This framework spans two complementary categories:

1. Differentiated diversifier

In a market where traditional asset classes no longer provide sufficient diversification — and where both macro and micro dispersion are expanding — the opportunity for differentiated performance is expanding.

iShares Systematic Alternatives Active ETF (IALT) is purpose-built to seek that opportunity, delivering a multi-strategy alternative solution within an ETF wrapper. Instead of investors having to piece together a complex sleeve of alternative exposures, IALT seeks to deliver a holistic allocation across market-neutral equities, diversified macro, and strategic premia in a single solution.

2. High-volatility diversifiers: Bitcoin and gold

Higher-volatility assets like Bitcoin and gold can serve as powerful amplifiers:

  • Gold jumped 65% in 2025, benefiting from persistent central bank demand, and tactical buying from retail.33 Although retail demand is volatile, we continue to see structural tailwinds amid shifting central bank reserves and U.S. fiscal sustainability. Gold’s very low correlation to technology stocks (Figure 9) makes it a potentially powerful portfolio diversifier.
  • Bitcoin's price action rounded out a volatile 2025, rallying to a record $126,210 and a subsequent 33% drawdown.34 Ahead, we believe Bitcoin’s long-term drivers remain: institutional adoption, rising concerns around sovereign debt levels, and regulatory clarity. While Bitcoin's correlation with risk assets tends to increase when broad risk sentiment shifts, many of the drivers of Bitcoin differ from those driving traditional risk assets. Some exposure to Bitcoin can therefore improve portfolio diversification, as shown in Figure 10.
  • Bitcoin and gold provide diversification benefits that differ meaningfully from those of stocks, bonds, or hedge funds.

Figure 10: Each diversifier brings its different risk-return benefits

Source: Morningstar, MPI, Bloomberg, MSCI, LBMA and BlackRock. Data from September 2020 to August 2025 using monthly frequency, and data is shown for S&P 500 Index, Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond, Bloomberg Bitcoin spot price, Bloomberg Gold Spot, Hedge Fund represented by HFRI North America Hedge Fund index. Risk is calculated using standard deviation of returns, as of December 8, 2025. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual fund performance. Index performance does not reflect management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Chart description: Dot chart displaying the annualized return on the Y-axis and the annualized risk on the X-axis for the asset classes of U.S. Aggregate Bond index, Hedge Fund, Traditional 60/40 portfolio, S&P 500, Gold, Bitcoin.

  • iShares ETFs are available to purchase through a brokerage account or with a financial advisor.

    Buy through your brokerage

    iShares funds are available through online brokerage firms. All iShares ETFs and ETPs trade commission free online through Fidelity.

    By clicking on the button below, you will leave BlackRock’s website.

    Buy now on Fidelity

    Contact your advisor

    Contact a financial professional to discuss how iShares ETFs and ETPs can fit in your investment portfolio.

    Carefully consider the Funds' investment objectives, risk factors, and charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the Funds' prospectuses or, if available, the summary prospectuses, which may be obtained by visiting the iShares ETF and BlackRock Fund prospectus pages. Read the prospectus carefully before investing. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

    Any links to third-party websites are provided for use at your own discretion. Each third party is solely responsible for the content presented and availability of its website. BlackRock does not control, monitor or maintain third-party websites, their content or the products/services they offer. Content may change without notice. When you leave BlackRock’s website and enter a third-party website, you will be subject to that site’s terms, policies and/or notices, including those related to privacy and security, as applicable. Please review those policies and notices on the third-party website.

    Before engaging Fidelity or any broker-dealer, you should evaluate the overall fees and charges of the firm as well as the services provided. Free commission offer applies to online purchases of select iShares ETFs in a Fidelity account. The sale of ETFs is subject to an activity assessment fee (from $0.01 to $0.03 per $1,000 of principal). For iShares ETFs, Fidelity receives compensation from the ETF sponsor and/or its affiliates in connection with an exclusive long-term marketing program that includes promotion of iShares ETFs and inclusion of iShares funds in certain Fidelity Brokerage Services platforms and investment programs. Please note, this security will not be marginable for 30 days from the settlement date, at which time it will automatically become eligible for margin collateral. Additional information about the sources, amounts, and terms of compensation can be found in the ETF’s prospectus and related documents. Fidelity may add or waive commissions on ETFs without prior notice.

    The Funds are distributed by BlackRock Investments, LLC (together with its affiliates, “BlackRock”).

    ©2024 BlackRock, Inc or its affiliates. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK, iSHARES, iBONDS, LIFEPATH, ALADDIN and the iShares Core Graphic are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.

    iCRMH1124U/S-3985892

  • iShares ETFs are available to purchase through a brokerage account or with a financial advisor.

    Buy through your brokerage

    iShares funds are available through online brokerage firms. All iShares ETFs and ETPs trade commission free online through Fidelity.

    By clicking on the button below, you will leave BlackRock’s website.

    Buy now on Fidelity

    Contact your advisor

    Contact a financial professional to discuss how iShares ETFs and ETPs can fit in your investment portfolio.

    Carefully consider the Funds' investment objectives, risk factors, and charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the Funds' prospectuses or, if available, the summary prospectuses, which may be obtained by visiting the iShares ETF and BlackRock Fund prospectus pages. Read the prospectus carefully before investing. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

    Any links to third-party websites are provided for use at your own discretion. Each third party is solely responsible for the content presented and availability of its website. BlackRock does not control, monitor or maintain third-party websites, their content or the products/services they offer. Content may change without notice. When you leave BlackRock’s website and enter a third-party website, you will be subject to that site’s terms, policies and/or notices, including those related to privacy and security, as applicable. Please review those policies and notices on the third-party website.

    Before engaging Fidelity or any broker-dealer, you should evaluate the overall fees and charges of the firm as well as the services provided. Free commission offer applies to online purchases of select iShares ETFs in a Fidelity account. The sale of ETFs is subject to an activity assessment fee (from $0.01 to $0.03 per $1,000 of principal). For iShares ETFs, Fidelity receives compensation from the ETF sponsor and/or its affiliates in connection with an exclusive long-term marketing program that includes promotion of iShares ETFs and inclusion of iShares funds in certain Fidelity Brokerage Services platforms and investment programs. Please note, this security will not be marginable for 30 days from the settlement date, at which time it will automatically become eligible for margin collateral. Additional information about the sources, amounts, and terms of compensation can be found in the ETF’s prospectus and related documents. Fidelity may add or waive commissions on ETFs without prior notice.

    The Funds are distributed by BlackRock Investments, LLC (together with its affiliates, “BlackRock”).

    ©2024 BlackRock, Inc or its affiliates. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK, iSHARES, iBONDS, LIFEPATH, ALADDIN and the iShares Core Graphic are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.

    iCRMH1124U/S-3985892

  • iShares ETFs are available to purchase through a brokerage account or with a financial advisor.

    Buy through your brokerage

    iShares funds are available through online brokerage firms. All iShares ETFs and ETPs trade commission free online through Fidelity.

    By clicking on the button below, you will leave BlackRock’s website.

    Buy now on Fidelity

    Contact your advisor

    Contact a financial professional to discuss how iShares ETFs and ETPs can fit in your investment portfolio.

    Carefully consider the Funds' investment objectives, risk factors, and charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the Funds' prospectuses or, if available, the summary prospectuses, which may be obtained by visiting the iShares ETF and BlackRock Fund prospectus pages. Read the prospectus carefully before investing. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

    Any links to third-party websites are provided for use at your own discretion. Each third party is solely responsible for the content presented and availability of its website. BlackRock does not control, monitor or maintain third-party websites, their content or the products/services they offer. Content may change without notice. When you leave BlackRock’s website and enter a third-party website, you will be subject to that site’s terms, policies and/or notices, including those related to privacy and security, as applicable. Please review those policies and notices on the third-party website.

    Before engaging Fidelity or any broker-dealer, you should evaluate the overall fees and charges of the firm as well as the services provided. Free commission offer applies to online purchases of select iShares ETFs in a Fidelity account. The sale of ETFs is subject to an activity assessment fee (from $0.01 to $0.03 per $1,000 of principal). For iShares ETFs, Fidelity receives compensation from the ETF sponsor and/or its affiliates in connection with an exclusive long-term marketing program that includes promotion of iShares ETFs and inclusion of iShares funds in certain Fidelity Brokerage Services platforms and investment programs. Please note, this security will not be marginable for 30 days from the settlement date, at which time it will automatically become eligible for margin collateral. Additional information about the sources, amounts, and terms of compensation can be found in the ETF’s prospectus and related documents. Fidelity may add or waive commissions on ETFs without prior notice.

    The Funds are distributed by BlackRock Investments, LLC (together with its affiliates, “BlackRock”).

    ©2024 BlackRock, Inc or its affiliates. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK, iSHARES, iBONDS, LIFEPATH, ALADDIN and the iShares Core Graphic are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.

    iCRMH1124U/S-3985892

The iShares Trusts are not investment companies registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, and therefore are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds or ETF's registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940. Investments in these products are speculative and involve a high degree of risk.
Photo: Gargi Pal Chaudhuri

Gargi Pal Chaudhuri

Chief Investment and Portfolio Strategist Americas at BlackRock

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Kristy Akullian, CFA

Head of iShares Investment Strategy

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