Q3 Earnings beat expectations amid signs of AI fatigue

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Q3 2025 earnings season results mattered more in the absence of economic data during the government shutdown.
  • U.S. companies soundly beat earnings expectations, with strength in many AI and non-AI firms.
  • Companies beat on earnings but stock prices did not reflect the resilience, pointing to potential fatigue over the AI theme.

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TOPT

iSHARES TOP 20 U.S. STOCKS ETF

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IEMG

iSHARES CORE MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF

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BAI

iSHARES A.I. INNOVATION AND TECH ACTIVE ETF

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FUNDAMENTALS IN FOCUS

1. This earnings season mattered more than most.

In the absence of macro data during the U.S. government shutdown, investors looked toward micro fundamentals for a read on the economy. Q3 earnings results pointed to continuing corporate resilience. The S&P 500 Index is on track to deliver 14% year-over-year earnings growth for the quarter.1 At the same time, management commentary has broadly followed a “no hire, no fire” theme, pointing to a softer labor market but a stable unemployment rate.

STRONGER AND BROADER

2. In the U.S., companies widely beat expectations — again!

The quarter is on track for best year-over-year earnings growth since Q4 2021. Consensus estimates heading into the season called for 6% earnings growth.2 AI stocks remained the major driver of earnings (expected 24% YoY growth), and beneficiaries of the AI datacenter buildout have continued to exceed expectations and raise forward-looking guidance. But the strength is spilling over to areas outside of the AI theme as well. Non-AI companies in the U.S. are set to grow earnings by 9% YoY in Q3, led by strong beats within the financials and healthcare sectors.3

Figure 1: Both AI and non-AI companies beat on earnings

Source: Chart by GPS Investment Strategy, BlackRock, as of Nov. 19, 2025. AI and non-AI companies comprised by a custom basket by GPS Investment strategy. AI companies comprised of 47companies within the S&P 500. Non-AI companies are S&P 500 ex AI basket companies. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Chart description: Bar chart comparing the estimated expectation versus actual change of earnings growth for Q3 on a year over year basis, for AI S&P 500 related companies versus non-AI S&P 500 companies.


The third quarter’s strength in earnings growth was not limited to the U.S. Emerging markets equities posted a strong quarter with 12% year-over-year growth for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.4 Just as in the U.S., the gains were driven by AI-linked sectors. Emerging market IT companies (dominated by companies in the chip/hardware supply chain) delivered a 38% earnings growth rate, significantly above the index’s 10-year average of 18% YoY earnings growth.5

European companies haven’t delivered stellar growth, but earnings still have fared better-than-feared. Consensus estimates for EPS growth for the Stoxx 600 Index was -6% heading into the season, but with 85% of the index reported, the figure is expected to be -1%.6

POTENTIAL FATIGUE AROUND THE AI THEME

3. Even though companies beat expectations, share prices didn't necessarily rally.

Companies that fell short of Q3 expectations tended to see sharper declines than normal, while those that reported strong earnings were less likely to see a pop in share price during the week of earnings compared to previous quarters.7 We feel this may suggest signs of investor AI fatigue. Concerns surrounding risks in private credit, a hawkish Fed pivot, and AI bubbles all emerged over the course of earnings season, likely spurring a bout of profit taking in select companies.

But profit taking appears to be selective, as that runs counter to the trend in ETF flows, where we’ve seen a clear preference to buy the dip. Weekly U.S. equity ETF flows after a week where the S&P 500 was negative have been 17% higher this year than the average flow week. This trend persisted in the most recent bout of uncertainty: the week of November 10, U.S.-listed ETFs saw $26B of net inflows, which is 2x the average weekly flow in 2025.

Figure 2: Clients are buying the dip

Bar charts showing weekly net flows into US listed equity ETFs.

Source: Chart by GPS Investment Strategy, ETF net flow data from Bloomberg, as of November 14, 2025. ETF groupings determined by Markit.

Chart description: Bar charts showing weekly net flows into US listed equity ETFs. The left hand chart shows the comparison of the average weekly equity flows compared to the average for weeks following a negative S&P 500 week for 2020 – 2024. The right hand chart shows the same comparison for 2025 YTD as well as flows for the week of November 10th, which followed a negative S&P week.


CONCLUSION

Looking forward, companies may be planning for a soft-landing in 2026: slower but steady growth, tariff noise that’s manageable (see What tariffs may mean for the economy and portfolios), and an AI build-out that has remained intact (see Are AI stocks in an bubble?). Most companies reporting largely reaffirmed or nudged up full-year 2025 guidance, with many management teams assuming modest rate relief and no abrupt break in growth.8 For broad market positioning context, see our most recent Investment Directions.

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