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Last year was a reminder of the interconnection between politics and markets. Many investors use ETFs for an efficient, flexible way to express a market view on a political event. Increasingly, investors are also using ETF options - both to express views and gauge market sentiment ahead of and during political events. With a full year of geopolitical events slated for 2020, consider watching ETF activity to provide insight into market sentiment.
2020 geopolitical calendar
| Date | Country/Region | Event | Related iShares ETFs |
|
First quarter | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1 | China | Foreign Investment Law takes effect | MCHI | CNYA |
| Jan 1 | U.S. | US-Japan trade agreement takes effect | ITOT | USMV |
| Jan 1 | U.S. | California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA) takes effect | ITOT | USMV |
| Jan 14 | U.S. / France | Deadline for public comments on list of $2.4 billion of French imports proposed for U.S. tariffs | EWQ | |
| Jan 21 | Japan | Bank of Japan meeting* | EWJ | |
| Jan 23 | Euro area | European Central Bank meeting* | EZU | |
| Jan 29 | U.S. | Federal Reserve meeting | TLT | |
| Jan 31 | UK | Article 50 extension will expire | EWU | HEWU |
| February | U.S. | Primary races in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina | ITOT | |
| February | Iran | Parliamentary elections | KSA | |
| Feb 16 | U.S. / China | Temporary General License for the export of U.S. components and services to a Chinese telecommunications company expires | MCHI | CNYA |
| March | China | National People's Congress | MCHI | CNYA |
| Mar 2 | Israel | Parliamentary elections | EIS | |
| Mar 3 | U.S. | Super Tuesday primary elections | ITOT | |
| Mar 12 | Euro area | European Central Bank meeting* | EZU | |
| Mar 18 | U.S. | Federal Reserve meeting | TLT | |
Second quarter | ||||
| Apr 15 | South Korea | Parliamentary elections | EWY | |
| Apr 28 | Japan | Bank of Japan meeting* | EWJ | |
| Apr 29 | U.S. | Federal Reserve meeting | TLT | |
| Apr 30 | Euro area | European Central Bank meeting* | EZU | |
| Jun 4 | Euro area | European Central Bank meeting* | EZU | |
| Jun 10 | U.S. | Federal Reserve meeting | TLT | |
Third quarter | ||||
| July 13-16 | U.S. | Democratic National Convention | IVV | |
| Jul 16 | Euro area | European Central Bank meeting* | EZU | |
| Jul 22 | Japan | Bank of Japan meeting* | EWJ | |
| Jul 29 | U.S. | Federal Reserve meeting | TLT | |
| Aug 24-27 | U.S. | Republican National Convention | ITOT | USMV |
| Sep 10 | Euro area | European Central Bank meeting* | EZU | |
Fourth quarter | ||||
| Sep 15-22 | U.S. | UN General Assembly | IVV | TLT |
| Sep 16 | U.S. | Federal Reserve meeting | TLT | |
| Sep 30 | U.S. | End of fiscal year | ITOT | USMV |
| Oct 29 | Japan | Bank of Japan meeting* | EWJ | |
| Oct 29 | Euro area | European Central Bank meeting* | EZU | |
| Nov 3 | U.S. | Presidential and legislative elections | ITOT | USMV |
| Nov 4 | U.S. | U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accords | ICLN | CRBN |
| Nov 5 | U.S. | Federal Reserve meeting | TLT | |
| Nov 9-19 | U.S. | UN Climate Change Conference | ICLN | CRBN |
| Nov 21-22 | Saudi Arabia | G20 meeting | KSA | |
| Dec 10 | Euro area | European Central Bank meeting* | EZU | |
| Dec 16 | U.S. | Federal Reserve meeting | TLT | |
| Dec 31 | UK | End of Brexit transition period | EWU | HEWU |
* European Central Bank meetings shown are those accompanied by press conferences. The Bank of Japan events shown are followed by the publication of the central bank’s outlook report.
Geopolitical developments to watch
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International investing involves risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. These risks often are heightened for investments in emerging/ developing markets or in concentrations of single countries.
Frontier markets involve heightened risks related to the same factors and may be subject to a greater risk of loss than investments in more developed and emerging markets.
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