Last year was a reminder of the interconnection between politics and markets. Many investors use ETFs for an efficient, flexible way to express a market view on a political event. Increasingly, investors are also using ETF options - both to express views and gauge market sentiment ahead of and during political events. With a full political calendar planned in 2019, consider watching ETF and ETF options activity to provide insight into market sentiment.
2019 geopolitical calendar
| Date | Country/Region | Event | Related iShares ETFs | |
| First quarter | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | U.K. | Parliment vote on Brexit | EWU† | HEWU |
| 1/23 | Japan | Bank of Japan Meeting* | EWJ† | HEWJ† |
| 1/24 | Eurozone | European Central Bank Meeting* | EZU† | HEZU† |
| 1/30 | USA | Federal Reserve Meeting | IVV† | |
| 3/1 | USA/China | Potential end of 90-day trade war truce between US and China | MCHI† | CNYA† |
| 3/7 | Eurozone | European Central Bank Meeting* | EZU† | HEZU† |
| 3/20 | USA | Federal Reserve Meeting | IVV† | |
| 3/24 | Thailand | General Election | THD† | |
| 3/29 | U.K. | Scheduled date for U.K. departure from the EU | EWU† | HEWU |
| Second quarter | ||||
| 4/10 | Eurozone | European Central Bank Meeting* | EZU† | HEZU† |
| 4/17 | Indonesia | General Election | EIDO† | |
| 4/25 | Japan | Bank of Japan Meeting* | EWJ† | HEWJ† |
| 5/1 | USA | Federal Reserve Meeting | IVV† | |
| April-May | India | General Election | INDA† | SMIN |
| May | South Africa | General Election | EZA† | |
| 5/13 | Philippines | General Election | EPHE† | |
| 5/14 | Emerging Markets | Announcement date: MSCI semi-annual index review (countries in focus: Saudi Arabia, Argentina, China) | KSA† | CNYA |
| By 5/18 | Australia | Federal Election | EWA† | |
| 5/23 | Eurozone | European Parliament Election | EZU† | HEZU† |
| 5/26 | Belgium | Parliamentary and Regional Election | EWK† | |
| 6/3 | Emerging Markets | Effective date: MSCI semi-annual index review (countries in focus: Saudi Arabia, Argentina, China) | KSA† | CNYA |
| 6/6 | Eurozone | European Central Bank Meeting* | EZU† | HEZU† |
| 6/17 | Denmark | Parliamentary elections | EDEN | |
| 6/19 | USA | Federal Reserve Meeting | IVV† | |
| 6/28 | G20 | G20 Summit in Osaka | EWJ† | MCHI† |
| Third quarter | ||||
| 7/25 | Eurozone | European Central Bank Meeting* | EZU† | HEZU† |
| 7/30 | Japan | Bank of Japan Meeting* | EWJ† | HEWJ† |
| 7/31 | USA | Federal Reserve Meeting* | IVV† | |
| 8/12 | Emerging Markets | Announcement date: MSCI quarterly index review (country in focus: Saudi Arabia, China) | KSA† | CNYA |
| 8/25 | G7 | G7 summit in France | EWJ† | EWG† |
| 9/2 | Emerging Markets | Announcement date: MSCI semi-annual index review (countries in focus: Saudi Arabia, Argentina, China) | KSA† | CNYA |
| 9/12 | Eurozone | European Central Bank Meeting* | EZU† | HEZU† |
| 9/18 | USA | Federal Reserve Meeting | IVV† | |
| Fourth quarter | ||||
| October | Japan | Consumption Tax Hike to 10% | EWJ† | HEWJ† |
| 10/21 | Canada | Federal Election (deadline) | EWC† | HEWC |
| 10/24 | Eurozone | European Central Bank Meeting* | EZU† | HEZU† |
| 10/27 | Argentina | General election | AGT | |
| 10/30 | USA | Federal Reserve Meeting | IVV† | |
| 10/31 | Japan | Bank of Japan Meeting* | EWJ† | HEWJ† |
| 10/31 | Eurozone | End of Term for Key European Union Leaders: Draghi, Junker, Tusk | EZU† | HEZU† |
| November | Poland | Parliamentary elections | EPOL | |
| 11/5 | Israel | Parliamentary elections | EIS† | |
| 12/11 | USA | Federal Reserve Meeting | IVV† | |
| 12/12 | Eurozone | European Central Bank Meeting* | EZU† | HEZU† |
| 12/20 | Switzerland | Parliamentary elections | EWL† | HEWL |
* ECB meetings shown are those accompanied by press conferences. The BoJ events shown are followed by the publication of the central bank’s outlook report.
† Funds with listed options available as of 12/31/18.
Dates reflected are as of 12/31/18 and are subject to change.
